Having been told last night in Brigg that weather forecasters were predicting up to six inches of snow, accompanied by high winds, it was a very pleasant surprise to discover no ice on the car this morning, much snow turned to slush round the town, Barnard Avenue completely clear, and even a few spots of rain falling rather than the white stuff.
Typical weather-latest quote this morning: "Forecasters said there was no significant early thaw in prospect."
Weathermen sometimes remind me of Dick Emery's comedy skinhead character, who used to admit in every episode: "I got it wrong again, dad!" Except, of course, the forecasters never do admit to being wrong. They use so-called weasel words like "probably" and "expected to". So they don't actually forecast what's going to happen, just give you an idea what weather might come along.
A piece of seeweed, or a pine cone hung outside the back door, would prove as accurate as some of these experts over the year.
And many of my fellow 'gentlemen of the press' are just as bad - if not worse. Staring up at us from the news-stand in Martin's this morning (and other Brigg shops) was a forecast from one major circulation Sunday newspaper that up to 60,000 Brits could perish in the bad weather. Many temperature comparisons were also being made with Siberia and the South Pole.
As the famous newspaper saying goes: "Never let the facts get in the way of a good story."
Geoff 'Shoddy' Jarvis - long-serving geography master at Brigg Grammar - used to teach a bit of weather forecasting as part of the O-level course. You had to look at the positioning of the warm and cold fronts (marked out by half-circles and triangular shapes) and forecast the correct weather for various points on the map.
On the fairly recently re-issued DVD of Brigg Grammar 1968/9 (produced to mark the 300th anniversary) there's some footage of boys on the school field (I could well have been one) having snowball fights during some pretty harsh winter weather. No doubt Geoff Jarvis would have known the blizzard was coming and alerted his colleagues in the staff room.
Brigg Grammar pupils living a long way from the school (eg Keelby and Bishop Norton) were often allowed home early during snowy weather, with buses arriving at dinner time or early afternoon. Yet those of us who lived in Brigg were never let off early. Even if only a handful of us remained the classes had to continue for Brigg residents (and members of the boarding house, of course). No fun for the masters, either, who I'm sure would have appreciated a few hours off to go home and shovel snow off their drives.
Our headmaster back then was H B Williams, who had his own house on the premises. Literally a stone's (or snowball's) throw from the main school buildings. The same DVD also shows 'H B' tending his garden in somewhat warmer weather.
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2 comments:
Aye, Nige, weather forecasting is not an exact science.
Any weather forecast can only generalise for a given area, but there are many local features and factors that can influence the prevailing conditions.
For example, if you check the local weather conditions for various places about northern Lincs, you'll find that present temp for Grimsby is about 3degrees C, while Barton is about 2 degrees C., meanwhile Scunthorpe is -1 - thus showing a 4 degree difference locally. Perhaps it's the ameliorating affect on temp of the sea and the Humber.
Wind speed overall is expected to be about 17 mph, but gusts are expected to reach about 30/35 mph this am.
If you've ever done any sailing in open water, you may have noticed that the wind direction will veer, or back about 15 degrees as it leaves land/sea. This is the result of the frictional hold that land has on a moving air mass relative to the rotation of the Earth...as the air mass moves across open water, it could be said that the boundary between the air and water is slippy, consequently generating less of a frictional hold.
Similarly, if the right conditions, isolated ice pockets can occur in low-lying areas, although higher ground could be warmer. This could be the result of the natural tendency for cold air to sink and warm air to rise.
This can locally create areas in the Ancholme Valley to be slightly colder than places some 25/50 feet above. In the summer, this affect can exacerbate the mists that loiter in the valleys and depressions.
And as any good gardener knows a raised bed is warmer for growing the more delicate crops as the immediate ground zone could be susceptible to ground frost and a micro climate. And similarly, a climber in a snow hole will build a ledge to lie on so that the cold air settles in the void below.
When I moved to Wrawby in 1985 Ken I was given some sound advice from my Grandfather .
" If your moving to Wrawby lad beware in winter it's a topcoat colder than Brigg is "
Not an exact science , however, having endured a few winters on Kettleby Lane I think he was right .
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